Showing posts with label Washington and Lee University. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington and Lee University. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Blogging now at Autos and Economics

I may on occasion repost here, but have decided not to spread my posts across several blogs. Please follow at:
http://autosandeconomics.blogspot.com

During the Washington and Lee University academic term my students and I blog on the following class-related sites.

Fall 2015
Senior Macroeconomics Seminar (Econ 398)– mainly US-related
Economics of Business Strategy  Industrial Organization  (Econ 243)

Winter 2016:
Econ 274 and Econ 243 as above

Spring 2016
Auto Industry (Econ 244)
Mike Smitka, Professor of Economics, Washington and Lee University

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Ron Paul at Washington and Lee: Does gold shine?

...based on discussions following Ron Paul's Wednesday January 15, 2013 talk at W&L...
There's a certain fascination with gold; it seems to offer a way to constrain central bankers, at one end of the rules versus discretion debate. Mind you, central banks don't have a stellar track record. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates during the onset of the Great Depression, surely worsening matters. That's a core criticism of Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in their Monetary History of the United States. So it's sensible to ask if there's a viable alternative.
Drawing upon Irving Fisher, Milton Friedman played around with rules that focused on the growth of the monetary base. Empirically, the first pass seemed to be OK. However, that turned out to be an artifact of his particular dataset, drawn from the early post-WWII period in which financial institutions in the US were tightly regulated. By 1980-81, when the Fed briefly tried to use such a rule under Paul Volcker's chairmanship, it was clear that there was no stability of the link between creating additional reserves and banks' creation of money. So if not reserves, then let's try targeting monetary aggregates, first M1 then M2. When those proved unreliable, then let's try an inflation target, now part of the legal mandate for the Bank of England. That, too, has problems; the latest iteration is to focus on holding the constant the growth of nominal gross domestic product. As to Friedman, he eventually concluded that none of the rules he proposed would work. But that was in his academic publications, and in talks before economists. He never went back to emend his popular writings that propounded what has been labeled "monetarism." Nor did he support the gold standard; to reiterate, in his analysis it was the US attempt to adhere to the gold standard that turned a recession into the precipitous decline of the Great Depression.
So what's wrong with gold? For one thing, any claim that it provides a stable source of value fails to pass the laugh test. Jewelry fashions come and go; central banks buy gold and then don't; mines dry up; the global economy booms. All affect the price of gold. Over the past 4 decades (setting 1970 = 100) the price rose to 950 circa 1980, then fell to 150 by the 1990s, and has risen again to 750. Traders in shopping malls booths wouldn't have a business scamming people out of their grandparents jewelry and selling overpriced coins if the price of gold was stable. One of the largest sources of gold is Russia; do we want to give Vladimir Putin the ability to thrust us into a recession if somehow Congress were able to forge a direct link between gold and the US macroeconomy? I suspect not.
Now it's unclear why Rand Paul latched onto gold; I suspect it was that he really wasn't "into" economic policy and never did his homework. Then, too, there is the residual impact of the writings Hayek and other "Austrians" that go back to the days when it looked like monetary policy rules might work. That is compounded by the Austrian school's loss of focus once high socialism was no longer a real threat. Hayek and others engaged in broad-brush arguments against socialism, with the Soviet system as their implicit target. It's hard for young people to fathom, but at one time that model seemed a real threat, both with the Red Army's continued occupation of eastern Europe, and the attraction of Stalin and the meteoric rise of of Russia from a backward peasant society to a military and scientific power that could provide many of the appurtenances of middle class life to its core population. In contrast, England's economy didn't do very well after 1914, and did horribly after 1929. In newly independent colonies, the political model also seemed attractive; bedeviled by unnatural geographies and ethnic tensions, democracy didn't look workable in the short run, and presidents who developed a fondness for the trappings of office found Stalin's example of how to hold onto power more useful than trying to learn lessons from Churchill's electoral failures. But in 1989, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and within a few years of Tiananmen, the success of market-oriented reforms in China. No one now views socialism as a threat.
...he had a store of one-liners, but no coherent story...
Unfortunately, the Austrian school has nothing to say to this new world; its raison d'ĂȘtre vanished in 1989. Yes, government is bad. But we're no longer talking about the heavy hand of the central planners in Moscow and their cruder counterparts in Romania or Beijing. The Austrian's broad-brushed treatment is not amenable to empirical exploration; ironically, unlike the teachings of Marx, it is more political philosophy than economics. (Marx's theories, of course, have been found wanting.) So the Austrians have nothing to offer policymakers, they have no ability to provide a nuanced picture of an economy. Another irony is that without the foil of the Soviet Union, those enthralled by the writings of von Mises and Hayek have become doctrinaire, arguing over fine points, hostile to any who are not true believers. I had hoped that mindset died out with the last generation of Marxists, only to find that today it characterizes the Right rather than the Left [both capitalized – after all, they are/were proud of the label].
Now Ron Paul is an engaging speaker; I've heard him. He makes enough sense here and there to encourage people to listen. But he ranges too far and wide. When it comes to economics, he may have a store of one-liners, but they don't add up to a coherent story.
...mike smitka...

Friday, February 10, 2012

Mock Convention Economics

Sen. Huckabee gave a speech at Washington and Lee on Friday, 10 February as part of W&L's quadrennial Mock Convention. I caught only a portion, in which he spoke of the role of values, that if all followed the Golden Rule, we would need no of government. What he said was thoughtful, at times eloquent, and certainly commensurate with my understanding of Scripture. But as a theory of government it is incomplete.
Certainly our brokenness is central for criminal law and the like; if sin were only skin deep rather than reaching to the core of our beings, the world would be a different place. But that represents but a small part of what a modern government does. In a modern economy, government is about our finite nature rather than our sinful nature.
Leviathan is above all local, not Federal. Government is first and foremost dominated by educating our children, and then by attending to the needs of our cars, providing us with water and taking care of our, uh, sewage, and with the exigencies of accidents. At the Federal level the largest function is addressing the side effects of aging, in particular the poor ability of markets to allocate resources over long time horizons in the face of high levels of uncertainty.
Trying to address these in a purely private manner presents insuperable challenges. Society benefits from a citizenry who are literate, numerate and engaged. Should a parent teach their child to read? send them to high school? – if it is left up to a market system, then the financial constraints that families face (after all, children come early in life, incomes peak later in life) and the uncertainties of the gains from education (does buying a college education really pay off?) would mean that we would regress to the 19th century, when illiteracy was pervasive.* And remember that education is not "bankable" – absent loan guarantees, who would lend money up front on the chance that years later Johnny or Julie would get a good enough job to repay with interest? This isn't a matter of sin – the issue persists even with an underlying willingness to pay.
Then there are simple efficiencies. Sewage treatment is costly, but less so if households can use a common system. Fire protection is hard to run on a pre-paid basis, and impossible on a fee-for-service one, billing a resident and their neighbors after a house burns down. Some of this stems from the challenges of coordinating the whole thing – setting up a membership system, convincing people to join, billing, and so on. Plus (rightly or wrongly) there is wide divergence of how much these services are worth. Government provides a one-stop-shop, while the political process tries to arrive at an acceptable compromise given the diversity of perceptions and preferences among society. But Americans are pretty good at team sports, and at management. All impressions to the contrary, over time we've improved the efficiency of government: despite a more complex world, and a far greater range of government services, it's no greater share of the economy now than it was in the 1950s.
So government does serve as a response to human brokenness. But it is also a response to our finite natures, to the costliness of information, and to the costs of coordination. The more complex a society is – the richer a society is – the greater the number of such issues, and also the greater the (market) value of our time. We simply can't be bothered with each and every issue, we don't have the knowledge, we don't know where we stand – and when we do, we seldom are so concerned as to be willing to spend time to work out our differences.
Of course this also means that government almost never gets things right.** Should we complain? No, we should get involved, while realizing that it's the unusual committee that votes our way all the time. That's what our forefathers did in rebelling against the British. It wasn't over taxes – after all, the first act of the new Congress was to levy one on tea. It wasn't over a failure to provide a legal system and courts, what we did there was pretty much to continue what the British had put in place. It was over voice. The Mock Convention hopefully instills a practical experience with that in Washington and Lee students that they will carry over into decades of active citizenship.
* Footnote: Now with guarantees, banks do lend, but students aren't good judges of whether for them education makes financial sense, plus they may simply prove unlucky, graduating with a degree at a time when no one is hiring. The track record of "manpower planning," of forecasting which skills will be in demand years down the road, is poor. So is any other attempt to predict the future. Would-be students are no more prescient than the experts. Markets don't work very well, can't work very well: without public provision our education levels would be abysmal. [If you never looked at a school or university budget, you may not realize that even private education is highly subsidized, with deductible charitable contributions, property tax and endowment income exemptions. Nor do we tax operating surpluses. (No, no! – "surpluses" are not profit.)]
** Footnote: Arrow's Impossibility Theorem shows this to be a general issue: all voting rules have defects. To rephrase this, no one ever seems to agree with me, and I get overruled in ways that are unfair–or are unfair to others. Arrow in fact has a second Impossibility Theorem, his proof of the existence of Walrasian general equilibrium, which is a necessary foundation for thinking that prices are good signals of scarcity. He in fact showed that the restrictions necessary for markets to work well and deliver the "right" prices are, well, too restrictive for the real world. And that's without factoring in either our finiteness or our sinful nature.