Friday, December 14, 2012

Triple alignment: The Age of Aquarius

...when Jupiter aligns with Mars ...
Three sources point toward a triple alignment in 2016.
First the Fed promises to hold interest rates at zero through 2015. In other words, don't expect much before then.
Second, the IMF has a nice study of US real estate markets in its background studies for the 2012 Article IV Consultation with the U.S. Taking household formation, the depreciation of housing, new construction rates and vacancy rates, they see housing markets recovering in ... 2016.
Finally, my own projection from the rate of job creation relative to the growth of population -- the normalization of age-specific employment to population -- points to 2016 as the point of covergence with "normalcy."
According to Wikipedia,
Traditionally, Aquarius is associated with electricity, computers, flight, democracy, freedom, humanitarianism, idealists, modernization, astrology, nervous disorders, rebellion, nonconformity, philanthropy, veracity, perseverance, humanity, and irresolution.
OK, I'll settle for a level of unemployment that gives new graduates a shot at a job. The Euro meltdown, the Chinese real estate bubble, and Congressional intransigence can all delay the advent of the new age. However, the closer we get to 2016, the greater the chance that our own domestic dynamics dominate.
Unfortunately, we're only at the start of 2013. So we've three more full years to go. We may not count this as a lost decade. Scant consolation.
...mike smitka...